Ranking quality by horizon step
Cross-sectional rank correlation between forecast and realized return. This is what a basket strategy depends on, and a constant level bias cannot flatter it. Zero is no relationship.
Interval calibration by horizon step
Share of names whose realized return fell inside the model's 10th–90th percentile band. The target is 0.80.
Ranking quality by size tier · latest step
Where the ranking works and where it does not. Core-eligible names are the pool the overall and sector baskets draw from.
Every elapsed step
Returns and errors in percentage points; skill and correlation are ratios. MPE/MAPE/MSPE are computed on relative price levels, where they are stable.
Aggregates per universe × mode × basket. Only complete periods are evidence; live rows are marks.